Just one week after the reopening of theaters, the cumulative box office of theaters nationwide exceeded 100 million, indicating that the audience's enthusiasm for watching movies is gradually returning.
But if you think about it, the box office in the country is only over 100 million a week, and the box office in the whole year is just too much. At present, if the theater wants to attract more audiences to watch the movie, what is expected by both the film and the audience holding the high-quality film, it seems that it has gone into nothing. Solution.
This is a manifestation of game theory in the current issue of cinema resumption. In fact, in every aspect around us, there are examples of games everywhere. Of course, the most classic is the game between the two suspects in the story of the police and the suspect.
The police arrested two criminal suspects holding counterfeit banknotes and interrogated them separately to prevent collusion. In the absence of evidence, the police need them to confess their guilt. Therefore, the police all told one of the suspects, “If you confess your guilt, you will be acquitted and the other party sentenced to 10 years; if the other party pleads guilty and you did not plead guilty, you will be sentenced to 10 years.” In this case, it seems that only confession is best for you. But if both parties plead guilty, they will both be sentenced to 7 years in prison; if both parties remain silent, because there is no clear evidence, they will also go to jail for 3 years for holding counterfeit banknotes. If you were one of the suspects, how would you choose?
△Picture: Ivey Movie Gallery, no connection between pictures and texts
This is also a well-known prisoner's dilemma theory in economics, and a basic example in game theory-a binary game. Obviously, both sides of the game want to maximize their own interests when faced with a choice, but as both sides of the game, the maximization of one party's interests depends on how the other party chooses, so there is a so-called psychological game.
Speaking back to the moment when theaters resumed their operations, the two parties involved in the game were the producers and audiences of the so-called high-quality films.
Let's analyze the game among them. As a film producer, he has two choices, either to release the film or not to release it. As a viewer, he also has two choices, either to enter the theater or not to enter the theater. It is easy for everyone to understand that this is the performance of the "Prisoner's Dilemma" theory in the current theater resumption issue. Needless to say, when the audience's popularity returns to normal, it is for the film party to maximize the interests of the film to have a good schedule, and for the audience, as long as there are high-quality films, it is the most happy thing for the audience to naturally enter the theater.
Things that seem to be unsolvable have already been studied in the eyes of game theory experts. John Nash, is an American professor, economist and game theory expert. An important discovery in a paper he published at the age of 22 is that in a game process, no matter what the opponent's strategy choice is, one of the parties will choose a certain strategy, which is called a dominant strategy. If any participant chooses the optimal strategy when the strategies of all other participants are determined, then this combination is defined as a Nash equilibrium. A combination of strategies is called the Nash balance. When each player's balance strategy is to achieve the maximum value of his expected return, at the same time, all other players also follow this strategy.
△Picture: Ivey Movie Gallery, no connection between pictures and texts
In layman's terms, as one of the players in the game, he will definitely make an optimal strategy for himself based on the opponent's strategy, and the two parties will form a strategy combination, which is the so-called Nash equilibrium or Nash equilibrium.
This tells us that the game between the audience and the film crew will eventually be solved. This solution is the so-called Nash balance. Specifically, the audience will definitely enter the theater and the film crew will eventually release high-quality movies. Because only such a choice is the best choice for both parties to maximize their benefits.
For the initial stage of the theater’s resumption of business, the audience and the film crew will definitely play a game, expecting the other party to play the cards first, but as time goes by, they will make more and more rational choices: the audience’s enthusiasm for watching the movie gradually recovers, and the film party will hold hands. Of high-quality videos.
This is the fact that the film producer keeps releasing news about the date of a certain movie and the date of the certain movie. The audience also keeps releasing when they expect to go to the theater to watch a long-awaited movie.
So what do the theaters in this game think? Just last Sunday, the editor chatted with a movie studio manager. He said that audiences still need blockbuster excitement to return to the theater. Now they mainly watch National Day files. The 8-day holiday of National Day will become an important opportunity. It is now known. There are "My Hometown and Me" and "Above the Cliff". Some movies with legendary Spring Festival files will also be selected for National Day. I believe there will be more blockbusters scheduled for this time period. The summer vacation will be a transitional period, more like a market preparation stage. During this period, the combination of new films + re-released films will also last for a while.
The editor went to a cinema to experience the real situation of the current cinema.
△Picture: Ivey Movie Gallery, no connection between pictures and texts
Entering the theater, there is a staff at the entrance of the theater. Only after a series of procedures such as bright green code and temperature measurement can enter the studio. The studio is very bright, but a bit deserted. The sales department that originally smelled of popcorn has been closed. . The audience in the lobby sat in twos and threes, very quiet, even during prime time like Sunday, there were not many audiences.
Tickets were checked into the theater, the huge theater, the audience was sitting apart, at first glance, there were fewer than 10 people. As a result, the editor went to another theater, which screened "Bloodwarrior", and there were not many people. But after all, there will still be audiences who choose to go into the theater to watch the movie.
Looking at the movies released since its opening and the box office, "Dolit's Fantasy Adventure" has been the number one box office, followed by the re-release of "Manslaughter", which has continued unabated momentum, followed by "Bloodman" and "Dream Hunting". "Travel around", "The First Parting" and so on. The editor envisions that if more and better films are released, the audience can return to the theater, and the popularity of the theater will also gather.
△Picture: Beacon Pro
This is about a game. The current stage is just the beginning of the game. It won't be long before the final trend is that the film party will come up with the film at the right time, and a large number of viewers will re-enter the theater. This is a win-win state, which is what Nash calls the equilibrium state.
"Ivy Movies" believes that "The First Parting" will be a win-win situation on the first day of theater resumption. As far as the film side is concerned, it has not only won the word of mouth, but also allowed the audience to see this type of niche film. Although it seems too early to popularize, it also broke a breakthrough by its own efforts and made a good one. For the audience, it’s good news to have a new film set to attract them to return to the theater. At present, although the size of the new film is not large, it is a win-win situation for both parties.
The president of Ali Pictures judged at the Shanghai Film Festival a few days ago that the theater box office will resume two-thirds of the usual same period in the next two weeks, and the National Day file will complete the entire box office recovery. "Ivey Movies" also analyzed and predicted from the perspective of game theory, and the final result was to achieve the Nash balance, and maximize the interests of the audience and the film crew.
We look forward to this balance soon.
(The picture of the title comes from the Ivy Movie Gallery, the picture and text are not related)
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